COVID-19 and the global drug supply chain
Date: 03-05-2021 GSI Research and Analysis group Authors: Noe Looser, Zachary Horsington, Sangay Linkins
General findings:
Countries with very strict mobility restrictions have seen a large decrease in the availability of narcotics, a decline in the street purity of narcotics and higher prices. Countries experiencing this include the United Kingdom, Italy, and Iran.
Criminal organisations active in these countries may be moving away from drug production and transportation and gravitating towards emerging crime related to the COVID crisis, such as cybercrime and the trafficking of falsified medicines. Countries in southeast Europe, which have been particularly affected and which also must contend with vulnerability to refugee inflows from the Middle East and increasing aggression from Turkey and Russia, all while they direct depleted national resources towards containing COVID and must navigate candidacy for EU membership, do not boast task forces with the technical skill or fiscal means to respond effectively to this new threat and may struggle to maintain law and order in the coming year.
Furthermore, trafficking organisations responsible for the transport of cocaine have easily adapted to COVID by increasing its existing dependence on maritime routes. Cocaine has long been transported from Latin America to Europe via non-commercial vessels, often transiting through Central or North Africa. As increased border security, a drop in trade and a reduction in aviation have increased the difficulty of smuggling cannabis via land or air, existing maritime routes are the only option. The detection of significant quantities of cocaine in European and Moroccan ports during the COVID pandemic suggests that maritime cocaine routes originating in Latin America and bound for North Africa and Southern Europe are flourishing.
Significantly, the trafficking of opiates has been forced to adapt to COVID mobility restrictions and may be shifting dramatically towards increasing dependence on maritime routes, with the result of creating new and unforeseen pressures on unprepared governments.
Although China moved to tighten regulations in 2019 to crack down on unlicenced fentanyl production, enforcement of these measures is limited and weakened by powerful industrial interests and, in particular, geopolitical concerns.
We are also witnessing an intensification of cannabis trafficking from Middle East and North Africa to Europe. There are potentially long-lasting effects of this for law enforcement, health (especially in the case of synthetic variants) and the economy of the countries affected.
Global Overview of Effects of COVID-19 on the Drug Supply Chain:
Latin & South America:
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to contract the global economy by 3% in 2020.[1] Latin America is anticipated to suffer the worst economic crisis in its history, with an anticipated contraction of 5.3%, comparable only to the 5% reduction caused by the Great Depression of 1930.[2] Within the Andean countries accountable for almost all the worlds coca supply, Peru, Colombia and Bolivia, their economies are expected to shrink by 4.0, 2.6 and 3.0%, respectively.[3] In doing so, while mainly due to inadequate social security measures in the region, the percentage of people living below the poverty line is expected to increase from 30 to 34%, and extreme poverty to increase from 11 to 13% across Latin America.[4] With 84% of the region’s labour within the agriculture and fishing sectors consisting of informal postings, the number of informal jobs lost are expected to be higher than the their formal counterparts.[5]
Mexican media suggest that methamphetamine prices have more than doubled between January 2020 and March 2020, while others cite figures of a sixfold increase in the price of methamphetamine in recent months, as imports of chemicals from Asia, predominantly China, have come to a halt.[6] However, increased sightings using drones and ultralight sensors at the US–Mexico border suggest that traffickers may be increasing short-rage air deliveries to accommodate.[7]
Colombian law enforcement has revealed that a coca bush eradication campaign is continuing as planned, in line with increased pressure on the drug trade. Cocaine production seems to have been impeded, especially in Eastern Colombia as a consequence of gasoline shortages, a resource previously smuggled from Venezuela and is an essential component for cocaine production.
Indeed, increasing border control crackdowns in have led to a reduction in cocaine trafficking via land routes and a spike in traffic across pre-existing sea routes. Submersibles, in particular, are the preferred for reduction in the availability of the necessary chemicals for cocaine production thereby limiting production capacities in the country.[8]
Political turbulence in late 2019 combined with recent challenges posed by the spread of COVID-19 in Bolivia appear to be limiting the ability of state authorities to control coca bush cultivation, which could in turn lead to an increase in its production. In Peru, the price of cocaine is falling, indicative of a reduction in trafficking opportunities. While this may act to deter coca bush cultivation in the short-term, the emerging economic crisis in Latin America will likely lead more farmers to take up or increase coca cultivation in all the major cocaine-producing countries.[9]
Afghanistan:
Seizures and increased traffic indicate that heroin trafficking from Afghanistan to Europe may be shifting Southwards from land to maritime routes. The more frequented Southern route moves product from Afghanistan through Iran and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, around the Arabian Peninsula and Africa, eventually reaching Europe. Increased traffic on this route stands to undermine the “Northern” and “Balkan” routes.[10]
More than 95% of all the worlds illicit opiates originate in three countries: Afghanistan (82%), Mexico (8%) and Myanmar (7%).[11] COVID-19 acts to hinder opium production and heroin manufacturing in a multitude of ways: mobility restrictions restrict the availability of workers to collect opium gum; stricter border controls and the global reduction in trade have hindered the ability to transport harvested product to laboratories; moreover, those laboratories have faced shortages of the imported chemicals required for heroin production; and finally, potential buyers may not be able to reach sale locations.[12]
Afghanistan closed its borders for travel to Iran at the end of February 2020 and to Pakistan at the end of March 2020. Moreover, restrictions on free movement within the country were imposed at the end of March 2020. However, border crossings are open for commercial traffic and cargo. At the same time, cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in all of Afghanistan’s opium poppy cultivating provinces, with movement restrictions being put in place in many of its cities.[13] The extent to which COVID-19 and measures to combat its spread are affecting opium harvests in Afghanistan is not yet clear. Harvesting relies on a considerable number of seasonal workers, who often migrate from other provinces in Afghanistan or travel from neighbouring countries such as Pakistan.
The most important chemical in heroin manufacture is acetic anhydride, used to synthesise morphine into heroin. is not legally available in Afghanistan and there is little evidence to suggest it is manufactured in Afghanistan either. Acetic anhydride typically reaches Afghanistan exclusively after being diverted from legal markets only then to be trafficked into the country by land. While local traffickers may maintain some stocks of acetic anhydride, once those supplies are used up, heroin manufacture within Afghanistan may slow down significantly.[14] While a future drought of acetic anhydride in Afghanistan may be influenced by border closures in and around Afghanistan, the more significant disruption to supply is reduced opportunities to obtain the substance from licit markets such as in the European Union and China.[15]
Media reports indicate that the Taliban generally adhere and support the COVID-19 restrictive measures implemented in Afghanistan, reportedly enforcing quarantines for migrants, distributing gloves, masks and information on how to avoid spreading the virus.[16] Moreover, reports cite the Taliban enforcing social distancing, by cancelling weddings, public gatherings and encouraging people to pray at home rather than at mosques.[17]
The prices of key food items such as cooking oil, wheat and wheat flour has increased by 20% between March and April 2020 in Afghanistan. Moreover, Afghanistan suffers from a wheat deficit, which is typically offset by imports, primarily from Kazakhstan. However, Kazakhstan, as a precautionary measure to minimize the economic impact of COVID-19, has introduced an export cap, which is expected to only further increases food prices in Afghanistan.[18] Such increases will be felt most by vulnerable populations, as well as those already dependent on humanitarian assistance. More than 80% of people in Afghanistan are living on less than the international applied poverty line, and this situation may only further exacerbate.[19]
Moreover, a quarter of Afghanistan’s labour force is unemployed and 80% of employment is unstable, comprising in-kind work, daily labour and the self-employed.[20] Between March and April this year, the purchasing power of pastoralists and casual labourers declined by 14% and 20% respectively, allegedly due to lockdown measures which have hindered work opportunities.[21] The economic deterioration within Afghanistan is significant to consider because all these developments are very likely to shrink licit work opportunities and increase the propensity of Afghanistan’s rural population to engage in illicit opium cultivation, harvesting, trafficking and heroin manufacturing.
Switzerland’s Synthetic Surge
Switzerland, known for its liberal stance on drug policy, has had its fair share of nationwide and internationally covered drug crises. The nation’s current pragmatic approach to drug legislation exists as a direct response to the 1980 heroin crisis. Law enforcement attempted to crack down on the sale and use of heroin, by incarcerating and criminalising addicts, however this response didn’t result in the desired outcomes.[22] Swiss authorities lost all control of the situation and decided to take radical action. Users were then given access to clean needles, safe injection sites, and even pharmaceutical grade heroin to help users manage withdrawals (later replaced with methadone).[23] Combined with free rehabilitation and re-acclimatization to society, this resulted in a 95% recovery rate amongst addicts.[24]
Today, the nation is faced with a much more muddied and complicated substance calamity. Towards the end of 2019, “Saferparty”, a prominent drug testing centre based in Zurich, tested samples of cannabis and detected a synthetic cannabinoid, sprayed onto CBD hemp, guised as a common THC strain of marijuana. This was thought to be an isolated incident, however as of January 2020, Saferparty has observed a significant increase in volumes of synthetic cannabinoid samples of this fashion across the Swiss market.
On the 10th of September 2020, “Saferparty” released a comprehensive narcotic analysis of the collected strains, revealing 50 of the 91 samples tested contained synthetic cannabinoids added to CBD hemp flowers or mixed into CBD hash.[25] [26] That suggests that more than half of cannabis in circulation throughout Switzerland may be synthetic, although the sample size is too small for an accurate extrapolation and could further be altered by people testing their cannabis only once they’ve had an adverse reaction.
Furthermore, testing for synthetic cannabinoids is more complicated and time consuming than testing for other drugs and cannot be done with a reagent kit at home. Due to this, “Saferparty” has had to turn away half of the test samples brought to them since they can only test 10 samples a week. This could facilitate uninformed, potentially deadly consumption practises.
The reason for concern is due to the drastically different safety profiles marijuana and synthetic cannabinoids present. THC is only a partial agonist of the D1 and D2 receptors, making it practically impossible to overdose from it.
On the other hand, synthetic cannabinoids are full agonists of the D1 and D2 receptors, making adverse reactions and even overdoses common, especially when sold and consumed like normal cannabis. Another issue is the diverse range of synthetic cannabinoids, promulgated by a cat and mouse game between chemists and lawmakers, with chemists producing new substances that reach the market before they can be banned.
Moreover, multiple designer cannabinoids can be combined to form a single synthetic cannabis, a highly dangerous combination, especially considering we don’t fully understand these drugs' long term and short-term effects.
With thousands of overdose deaths reported around the world, synthetic cannabis now has a new hidden identity in Switzerland, now thriving due to massive profit margins and a lack of access to imported cannabis due to covid-19 travel restrictions.
Switzerland's next step will be absolutely critical and if one considers the state's stance on these social issues, there is a good chance that Switzerland will push for the legalisation, regulation and taxation of cannabis. For now, Swiss media outlets are warning consumers of these hidden dangers and law enforcement has been alerted to the problem.
[1] Ibid.
[2] ECLAC. 2020, “Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 with a View to Reactivation”, Special Report 2.
[3] Inter-American Development Bank, “El Impacto del COVID-19 en las Economías de la Región. América Central” (2020); ECLAC. 2020, “Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 with a View to Reactivation”, Special Report 2.
[4] ECLAC. 2020, “Latin America and the Caribbean and the COVID-19 Pandemic. Economic and Social Effects”, Special Report No 1.
[5] Inter-American Development Bank, “Cómo Impactará la COVID-19 al Empleo? Posibles Escenarios para América Latina y el Caribe” 2020.
[6] Alejandro Hope (security analyst and former Mexican intelligence officer), “Narcos are suffering from the Covid-19 lockdown too – organised crime dealt big blow by disrupted supply chains and blocked sales channels”, Financial Times, 20 April 2020. Available at https://www.ft.com/content/42341ce6-82e5-11ea-b555-37a289098206; Prices for 1 pound of methamphetamine allegedly increased in Mexico from 2,500 pesos to 15,000 pesos according to the Mexican weekly Riodoce, reported by Sandra Weiss, “How the coronavirus lockdown is hitting Mexico’s drug cartels”, Deutsche Welle (DW), 4 April 2020. Available at (https://www.dw.com/en/how-the-coronavirus-lockdown-is-hitting-mexicos-drug-cartels/a-53001784); Keegan Hamilton, “Sinaloa Cartel Drug Traffickers Explain Why Coronavirus Is Very Bad for Their Business”, Vice News, 23 March 2020. Available at https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/bvgazz/sinaloa-cartel-drug-traffickers-explain-why-coronavirus-is-very-bad-for-their-business; Vice.com. Available at https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/bvgazz/sinaloa-cartel-drug-traffickers-explain-why-coronavirus-is-very-bad-for-their-business.
[7] Noticias Financieras (English), “From Peruvian cocaleros to retailers in Paris, coronavirus tops the drug trade” 24 April 2020.
[8] Ibid.
[9] UNODC. 2020, “COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use”, Research Brief.
[10] Ibid.
[11] UNODC, World Drug Report 2019, estimated shares of oven-dry opium production of global total.
[12] [12] UNODC. 2020, “COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use”, Research Brief.
[13] Available at https://tolonews.com/index.php/health/covid-19-govt-limits-residents-movement-herat.
[14] UNODC, “Voices of the Quchaqbar” – Understanding Opiate Trafficking in Afghanistan from the Perspective of Drug Traffickers, forthcoming.
[15] Available at https://www.incb.org/incb/en/precursors/technical_reports/precursors-technical-reports.html.
[16] Available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-taliban-ms-13-drug-cartels-gangs/2020/04/13/83aa07ac-79c2-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html.
[17] Available at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/taliban-launches-campaign-afghanistan-fight-coronavirus-200406055113086.html.
[18] OCHA, “Afghanistan. Brief: COVID-19. Number 36” 16 April 2020.
[19] United Nations, “COVID-19 Multi-Sector Humanitarian Country Plan. Afghanistan”, 24 March 2020.
[20] United Nations, “COVID-19 Multi-Sector Humanitarian Country Plan – Afghanistan”, 24 March 2020.
[21] OCHA, “Afghanistan. Brief: COVID-19. Number 36” 16 April 2020.
[22] Ambros Uchtenhagen. University of Zurich. 2009, “Heroin-assisted treatment in Switzerland: A case study in policy change”, Research Brief.
[23] Ibid.
[24] Ibid.
[25] Stadt Zürich, Drogeninformationszentrum DIZ. 2020, “Synthetische Cannabinoide: Ergebnisse aus dem Drug-Checking der Stadt Zürich, Januar bis August 2020”, Research Brief.
[26] Ibid.